Rating: ★★★★☆ (4/5)
Introduction
In Will India Get Rich Before It Turns 100?, veteran journalist and editor Prosenjit Datta presents a sharply analytical and empirically grounded assessment of India’s economic trajectory. While political discourse celebrates the promise of “Amrit Kaal” and envisions a $30–40 trillion economy by 2047, Datta probes whether this vision stems from actual structural preparedness or rests on overly optimistic rhetoric.
Combining economic reasoning with institutional critique, demographic analysis, and policy insights, the book stands apart from hagiographic accounts of India’s growth. It delivers a critical, constructive, and timely examination of what it will truly take for India to attain prosperity.
I. Questioning Forecasts and Linear Growth Models
Datta opens with a critique of economic predictions, pointing to the unreliability of forecasts in a country as dynamic and complex as India. He quips:
“Making predictions is a risky business… especially if the prediction is very specific and concerning the near future”.
The frequently shifting $5-trillion GDP target exemplifies this problem—an ambition repeated by successive governments from 2018 through 2024, often untethered from economic fundamentals. Datta notes that “almost no forecaster gets it right regularly,” underlining how India’s erratic data and frequent GDP revisions obstruct reliable economic modeling.
This theme—how unchecked optimism can become self-delusion—runs throughout the book.
II. Rethinking Development: Beyond GDP
One of the most compelling sections questions the conventional equation of development with GDP. Datta urges a shift in focus from absolute GDP to more meaningful measures, highlighting that:
“India is… a big economy but it is still a poor country”.
Despite ranking fifth globally in absolute GDP, India’s per capita income remains modest—approximately $2,500—placing it in the lower middle-income bracket per World Bank classifications.
He draws attention to India’s position in the Human Development Index (HDI)—ranked 134 out of 193 nations in 2024—arguing that GDP alone cannot reflect a nation’s quality of life. A high-growth economy marked by inequality and poor human development outcomes is hardly a model of success.
III. Demographic Potential—or Peril?
While India’s youthful population is often seen as a built-in growth engine, Datta takes a more nuanced stance:
“Demographics favour high growth—if this can be harnessed properly”.
The conditional is critical. Although India will continue to boast the world’s largest working-age population until mid-century, challenges of education, skill development, and job creation loom large. Female labour force participation remains distressingly low, and most jobs are still in the informal sector. Without institutional readiness, the demographic dividend could become a liability.
IV. Employment: Quantity vs. Quality
Datta dedicates a significant portion of the book to India’s employment crisis. While GDP has grown, meaningful job creation has not kept pace. He highlights the structural imbalances—tech and services fuel GDP but employ relatively few, while manufacturing lags despite government campaigns like ‘Make in India.’ Meanwhile, agriculture remains overloaded and inefficient, employing too many people for too little output.
V. Shocks and Fragilities
The chapter titled “Wars, Global Disruptions, Pandemics, and Others” outlines how global events can destabilize even the best economic strategies. From COVID-19 to geopolitical conflicts, Datta notes the systemic vulnerability exposed by sudden policy decisions. Of the 2020 national lockdown, he writes:
“The national lockdown implemented by the government would bring all economic activities—except for a few essential services—to a halt”.
This abruptness, particularly for millions of migrant workers, underscored how India’s real weaknesses lie not only in external shocks, but also in poor institutional agility and reactive governance.
VI. Long-Term Risks: Climate and AI
Datta extends his analysis beyond immediate policy concerns to looming systemic challenges. He stresses the need for forward-looking strategies on climate change and AI. He warns that without a sustained national strategy, India risks falling behind in both technological innovation and environmental resilience.
VII. The Manufacturing Debate
Datta critically examines whether India should emulate China’s manufacturing-led, export-driven development model. He expresses skepticism given today’s economic realities—automation reducing low-cost labour advantages, and global protectionism rising.
Instead, he suggests that India’s unique strengths—in IT, services, and select industries—might serve better under a hybrid approach. But this demands coordinated infrastructure, regulatory clarity, and policy continuity.
VIII. Data Problems and Statistical Opacity
A core concern repeated across chapters is India’s troubled data ecosystem. Datta is unsparing in his criticism:
“Forget the future, the exact growth that took place in the immediate past is also never certain”.
He draws attention to frequent GDP recalculations, unclear methodologies, and politicized data dissemination. Without reliable statistics, evidence-based policymaking and citizen trust both suffer.
IX. Towards Stability, Equity, and Vision
In the concluding chapters, Datta outlines a reformist but realistic roadmap for India’s economic future. Key recommendations include:
-Reforming institutions to improve accountability and policy predictability.
-Prioritizing education and skill development to harness demographic advantages.
-Promoting inclusive growth that reduces inequality and uplifts rural and marginalized communities.
-Investing in green energy and climate adaptation to future-proof the economy.
-Creating a consistent long-term economic strategy that rises above electoral cycles.
As he underscores:
“Crossing the bridge to becoming a rich country will not be an easy task and there are plenty of hurdles on the way”.
Strengths of the Book
Clarity of Expression: Datta’s prose is precise and engaging, making economic debates accessible to a wider readership.
Balanced Tone: Avoiding both pessimism and blind optimism, the book offers a realistic yet hopeful lens.
Data-Driven Analysis: Robust empirical grounding adds credibility and depth to the arguments.
Comprehensive Scope: The book spans macroeconomics, labour markets, demographics, climate risks, and global trends.
Limitations
Repetitiveness: Certain themes—such as the demographic dividend and GDP forecasting—are reiterated across chapters.
Lack of Detailed Prescriptions: While the diagnosis is sharp, concrete policy solutions are sometimes thin.
Underexplored Political Economy: Crucial issues like caste, gender equity, and center-state relations are not deeply addressed.
Conclusion
Will India Get Rich Before It Turns 100? is an essential, timely intervention in India’s economic discourse. It cuts through political soundbites and boosterish rhetoric to deliver a grounded, evidence-based picture of where the country truly stands—and what it must do to advance.
Whether India becomes a high-income nation by 2047 remains uncertain. But as Datta makes clear, progress will hinge not just on ambition, but on credible institutions, inclusive policies, and long-term vision. This book offers not a prophecy, but a well-argued reality check—and we would do well to heed it.
Final Rating: ★★★★☆ (4 out of 5 stars)